Grid Fees Forecast
In just a few years, the grid fees for high-voltage level have risen from under 3 ct/kWh to well over 6 ct/kWh. Even for companies that fall under the 7000-hour regulation, grid tariffs have become a significant component of electricity procurement costs. Those who do not benefit from §19.2 StromNEV often end up paying more for grid usage than for the electricity itself. Given the planned investments of over €500 billion by the grid operators, concerns about further increases in fees are understandable. This is particularly concerning for companies making (re-)investments in energy-intensive processes, and even more so for those considering electrification, as they fear the impact of rising grid fees.
Lack of Transparency
While forward markets provide insights into wholesale price trends for the coming years, and numerous consulting firms offer model-based electricity price forecasts, there is a significant lack of transparency when it comes to grid fees. Neither the grid operators, the Federal Network Agency, nor the federal government publish their forecasts for grid charges. We fill this gap: Our forecasts help energy sector companies and energy-intensive industries gain a clearer understanding of the medium- and long-term development of grid fees, providing them with the necessary planning certainty.
Our Grid Fees Forecast
Our forecast is based on a detailed reproduction of the transmission system operators’ grid tariff calculation, taking into account the revenue cap approved by the Federal Network Agency. It incorporates macroeconomic forecasts, our projections of future redispatch and ancillary service costs, as well as energy price trends. The basis for future capex is a comprehensive analysis of the Grid Development Plan. Additionally, we factor in a wide range of other sources and insights, including emerging ancillary services, such as inertia.
With this approach, we forecast:
- Grid tariffs for network levels 1 and 2
- Energy and capacity prices
- Below and above 2,500 usage hours
- On an annual basis up to 2040
Where is This Heading?
The four TSOs expect investment costs of more than €18 billion p.a. until 2040 – up from just €2.5 billion annually in the past. However, several factors help mitigate this cost increase: transmission lines are depreciated over up to 40 years, benefiting from low capital costs in a regulated sector. Additionally, rising electricity demand will spread these costs across a larger base. The TSOs pledge that these investments will result in a largely congestion-free grid, leading to savings in annual redispatch costs, currently between €3 and €4 billion. What does this mean in practice? Our grid fee forecast provides the detailed answer.