Project references

We are proud of the many projects we have delivered since 2014. They range from big public sector consulting projects spanning several years with multimillion euro budgets and several partners all the way to short-term advisory delivered in a matter of weeks. Some projects result in published reports, including most recently the following:

2025 / ongoing

 

REMIT (utility). Expert witness report on behalf of a European utility in a REMIT-related market manipulation lawsuit concerning imbalance settlement. 2025.

Non-market clearing (utility). Rapid expansion of renewables combined with insufficient curtailment is increasing the likelihood of supply exceeding demand. In these cases, the day-ahead market would not clear despite steeply negative prices. We developed a prediction model to assess the probability of such events. 2025.

Local signals (BMWK). To efficiently integrate the growing number of flexible consumers into the system, local signals are essential. In this project, we are supporting the German government in the development and evaluation of instruments for local signals. Ongoing.

Progress report solar (BMWK). Along with our partner ZSW, we write the current edition of the regular progress report on solar energy. We are tasked with assessing the impact of dynamic tariffs and dynamic grid fees on small-scale solar. Ongoing.

Electricity strategy (BMWK). Support of Germany’s economics ministry in developing and implementing the overall strategy in transforming and decarbonizing the country’s electricity supply. Ongoing.

Electricity grid (BMWK). This large project, lead by Consentec, supports the German government in a range of questions related to network expansion planning. We provide advice on grid financing, including cross-border cost sharing and reforms of network charges. Ongoing.

Demand-side flexibility (BMWK). Everyone lives demand-side flexibility, but it hasn’t taken off yet. A crucial reason are various regulatory hurdles, from the (lack of) smart meters to peak demand network charges. We support Germany’s DOE in this domain. Ongoing.

Renewables support scheme (BMWK). Germany needs to reform its support scheme by 1 Jan 2027. A particular concern are undistorted dispatch incentives for wind and solar energy. Along with our partners Guidehouse and Consentec, we provide assessment and advice on various proposed reforms. Ongoing.

Settlement price (utility). Several European countries move towards more liberal imbalance settlement rules and introduce a symmetric imbalance settlement price. Against this background, we supported a utility updating its trading and investment strategies. 2024-25.

Scheduling process (TSOs). Market parties have to submit a schedule to their connecting TSO, forecasting generation and consumption. However, they often have an incentives to submit a biased forecast. For the German TSOs, we evaluate options to improve schedule accuracy, building on lessons learned from other countries. 2024-25.

Excess electricity (BMWK). Solar power expands quickly in many countries. However, this comes at a price: given that in Germany most additions are small-scale and subject to a feed-in-tariff, they keep generation even if supply exceeds demand. In this project, we forecast the probability of excess electricity situations for coming years and support the German government addressing the problem. Ongoing.

Smart charging (Rabot). Dynamic tariffs allow owners of EVs to benefit financially from charging their cars when it is cheapest. Time-of-use grid fees, intraday optimization, and bidirectional charging leverage such optimization. For Rabot Energy, a smart charging pioneer, we quantify the financials for a range of typical German drivers. 2024-25. Report (DE | EN)

Injection charges (TenneT). Countries such as the Netherlands are discussing introducing injection charges as a mean to distribute offshore grid connection costs more fairly. With our partner Consentec, we provide an economic assessment such injection charges. 2024-25.

EU electricity market design (BMWK). European legislation shapes electricity markets, and more change is coming. This project provides continuous support and advice for Germany’s energy ministry in upcoming EU electricity market negotiations in a variety of topics ranging from support schemes to grid fees and capacity mechanisms. Ongoing.

Capacity mechanism (BMWK). After a political decision to introduce a capacity market, this two-year project develops such a market for Germany’s BMWK. The overall project is coordinated by Consentec, we lead the work on hedging obligations. Ongoing.

2024

 

Strategic advisory (project developer). For a European wind, solar and battery developer, we provide strategic advice, focusing on capture rates, regulatory change and market design. 2024.

Solar price effect (BSW). Imagine a year without solar energy. With reduced supply, wholesale prices would be much higher than they actually are. For trade association BSW, we empirically quantify this solar price effect. 2024.

Consultation (industrial company). After the German government publishing an electricity market white paper (“Strommarkt der Zukunft”), we provided support in drafting a stakeholder consultation response. 2024.

Dynamic FIT (50Hertz). Germany now has 60+ GW of solar capacity under the feed-in-tariff. Those generators won’t stop producing, even if oversupply sends wholesale price in negative territory. For TSO 50Hertz, we develop a reformed feed-in-tariff that incentives producers to turn of in situations of oversupply. 2024.

Grid fees (Industrial company). Network charges make up an ever-increasing share of industrial electricity bills, jeopardizing electrification investments. We provide forecasts of TSO grid fees until 2040, including projections of capacity and energy charges. 2024.

§19(2) StromNEV (TenneT). For decades, Germany’s system of rebates for grid fees for heavy industry has prevented industrial demand-side response. Finally, a reform window has opened. In this project, we identify the numerous problems of the current rebates and propose a range of reform options. 2024. Report (DE | EN)

Wind competitiveness (RE project developer). The cannibalization effect threatens to make wind energy a victim of its own success. For a large onshore developer, we assess future factors that support wind competitiveness and provide input for a new business strategy. 2024.

Imbalance settlement price (Swissgrid). Concerned about large system imbalances, Switzerland has decided to reform its imbalance settlement price. We provide quantitative assessment of proposed pricing system and develop a new pricing regime. Our proposal is derived from first principles and informed by the real-world experience of other countries. 2024.

Support schemes (BMWK). Germany needs to update its renewables support scheme for wind and solar energy to comply with EU law. A particular concern is to reduce dispatch distortions. We provide assessment and advice on a range of options ranging from incremental reforms to fixed-for-floating swaps. 2024.

Network charges (Chancellery). Rising network charges are an increasing concern for policy makers, driven by concern about industrial competitiveness. For Germany’s chancellery, we assessed current and future development of grid costs and network charges. 2024.

Grid fees (Industrial company).  Forecast of German TSO network charges on an annual basis until 2040 based on projections of investment, cost of capital, ancillary services, electricity prices, and electricity demand. 2024.

Ancillary services (Battery project developer). Battery project eye ancillary services as sources of revenues. Those include upcoming markets such as reactive power and synthetic inertia. We provided an assessment of ancillary services markets and ad-hoc input to business case development for a European battery project developer. 2024.

Offshore tender (RE project developer). Offshore wind tenders now often include non-price criteria. We reviewed the tender documents for a European offshore project and provided input regarding system integration. 2024.

REMIT (Utility). Lion served as an expert witness on behalf of a European utility in a REMIT-related market manipulation lawsuit concerning balancing markets. 2024.

Value of flexibility (ZVEI). Small-scaled demand-side flexibility resources such as EVs, heat pumps, and solar batteries are widely acknowledged as core ingredients of future energy systems, but scale-up is sluggish in practice. In this report, we estimated the economic value for markets and grids based on a numerical Python model. 2023-24. Report (DE | EN)

Cross-border forward markets (TSOs). European TSOs issue long-term transmission rights. ACER had proposed numerous changes, including the establishment of a virtual hub. In this report for the German TSOs, we develop an analytical framework to assess cross-border forward markets and assess these proposals. 2023-24. Report

Real-time price (Elia). Belgium TSO Elia works on reforming its imbalance settlement price in the context of PICASSO. As part of a review committee, we provide input and assessments and support external communication. 2023-24.

 

2023

 

Industrial power prices (Agora Energiewende). Study on design options for electricity price subsidies for industrial consumers, considering incentives, hedging and flexibility. 2023.

Network charges (Staatskanzlei Niedersachsen). Briefing paper on the current state of network charges in Germany, shortcomings, and reform options. 2023.

Electricity market reform (European Parliament). Assessment of electricity market reform proposals such as CfDs, PPAs, price caps, and peak shaving. Joint project with Bruegel for ITRE committee. 2023. Report

Smart retail tariffs (Utility). Proposal for a dynamic retail tariff that offers customers price insurance without stifling decentralized flexibility (report DE|EN) and dynamic grid fees (report DE|EN). 2023.

German electricity market (Utility). Along with PA Consulting, we provided a global energy company with strategic assessments of the German power market. 2023.

Revenue cap implementation (BNetzA). Germany’s energy regulator is tasked with implementing the revenue cap on power generators. Along with Frontier Economics, we provided economic expertise. Ongoing.

Passive balancing (multi client). Study on the role of decentral balancing, i.e. the response of market parties to imbalance prices, commissioned by a group of market parties. 2023. Report (DE|EN)

Electricity market design (Agora Energiewende). Support of Germany’s leading energy think tank on electricity market design, in particular regional dynamic network charges. 2022-23. Report (DE|EN)

Gaming (TenneT). Game-theoretical assessment of local markets for flexibility, formally identifying optimal increase-decrease bidding strategies and mitigation measures. Joint work with Takon and ZEW. 2021-24. Working paper

Coal exit (BMWi). Germany’s government committed to cancel carbon certificates along with its coal exit. In this project with Aurora, we provided estimates how many certificates to delete. 2021-23.

 

2022

 

Intraday / Balancing (TSO). Econometric identification of the link between intraday prices and balancing activation based on millions of individual transactions. We found a strong correlation, a possible sign for insider trading. 2022.

Electricity market design (Utility). Analytics and assessments on the EU market design reform, focusing on offshore wind. 2022.

Imbalance settlement pricing (Elia). Support in developing a new imbalance settlement pricing scheme in Belgium in the context of PICASSO. 2022.

Future gas costs (E3G). Assessment of future costs of gas supply for Berlin-based think tank E3G. 2022. Report

Home battery storage (Sonnen). Simulations for optimizing home battery storage operations during the energy crisis. 2022.

PV support scheme design (Swissgrid). Support scheme for solar energy centered around generation adequacy. We proposed an optimized contract for differences. 2022.

Consumer centric market design (50Hertz / Elia). Study on better integration of flexible consumers into power markets, particularly device-specific metering, passive balancing, and ex-ante firm imbalance pricing. 2022.

Balancing markets (Utility). For a European storage investor, we provided an assessment of multiple European balancing markets and long-term balancing price forecasts. 2022.

Future Energy Outlook (TransitionZero). Advice on setting up a global energy outlook, including recruitment and technical model development. 2021-22.

Charging infrastructure (Agora Verkehrswende). Partnering with Consentec, we assessed the market for public EV charging infrastructure and developed a proposal for a competitive market design. 2021-22. Report

Nodal pricing model (TSO). Development of a GAMS load flow model of Europe for simulations of locational marginal prices. 2021-22.

Dispatch Hubs (Elia / 50Hertz). For TSOs Elia und 50Hertz we assess the incentives implied in multiple variants of their “Dispatch Hub” proposals, in particular incentives for inc-dec gaming. 2020-22. Report

2021

 

Strommarkttreffen (Agora Energiewende). For many years, we organized and grew Strommarkttreffen, a professional network that links researchers with practitioners. Agora Energiewende supported us financially. 2016-21.

Intraday / balancing (multi client). For a group of German electricity trading houses, we assessed the German intraday electricity market. Using state-of-the-art econometrics, we found the activation of balancing reserves to be followed by price movements. 2021. Report (DE|EN)

Open energy outlook (TransitionZero). On behalf of NGO TransitionZero, we developed a technical proposal for a transparent, rigorous global energy systems model. 2021.

Redispatch for loads (BMWi). Outline of incentive-based participation of electricity consumers in Germany’s redispatch system based on capacity remuneration. Key design parameters are assessed with respect to economic efficiency and gaming incentives. Study for the Economics Ministry. 2020-21.

Procurement of ancillary services (BMWi). Assessment of market-based procurement of non-frequency ancillary services such as inertia, black start capability and voltage support. Teaming up with EF.Ruhr and others, Neon served as work package leader. 2019-21. Report 1 | Report 2

 

2020

 

Italy’s PUN (BMWi). The Italian electricity market has six different bidding zones, but consumers pay a uniform prezzio nationale unico (PUN). For Germany’s Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy, we assessed the pro’s and con’s of such an arrangement. 2020.

System imbalances (Trading company). During three episodes in June 2019, Germany’s power system was heavily out of balance. For a European trading house, we provided expertise and analysis on the reasons and regulatory implications. 2019-20.

RE auction design (BMWi). Evaluation of Germany’s renewable energy auctions and assessment of reform options on behalf of Germany’s Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy. Navigant served as project lead. Neon contributed analyses of system-friendly wind power and locational signals. 2018-20. Report

Open modeling (BMWi). Study on open source energy system modeling and open data in the energy sector for BMWi. Neon lead a consortium of DIW Berlin, TU Berlin and ETH Zurich. 2018-20. OPSD | Report | Paper

Market-based redispatch (BMWi). Large study on competitive procurement of redispatch resources and local flexibility markets. Our core conclusion was that the risk of inc-dec gaming likely outweighs potential benefits. Neon served as project lead of a large consortium. 2017-20. Markt/Netz report (DE) | Final Report (DE | EN)

Earlier

 

EU electricity market design (BMWi). Policy advice on wholesale market and balancing market design for Germany’s Economics Ministry in the context of the Clean Energy Package. Neon was member of a consortium with Connect Energy Economics, Consentec, and others. 2016-19.

ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (European Commission). Quality assessment of the data provided by European Transmission System Operators for DG Energy, Brussels. 2017. An article based on this study appeared in Applied Energy. Report | Article

Grid benefits of offshore wind (RE project developer). Neon delivered input to a policy paper, assessing the grid and system benefits of offshore wind, driver by high capacity factors. 2016.

Wind value lift (RE project developer). Evaluation of design options and operation strategies to improve the economics of wind power under market conditions. 2016-17.

Trading benchmark (Trading company). Regulatory assessment and quantitative cost benchmarks for portfolio management costs of renewable energy for the trading department of a major European utility. 2017.

Nodal vs. zonal pricing (BMWi). Consulting on locational price signals in wholesale markets for Germany’s Economics Ministry. Joint project with Consentec. 2016-17. Report

Open Power System Data (BMWi). Construction of an online platform for European power system data. Neon coordinated a team of three research institutes. 2015-17. Platform

RE time series (Utility). Neon developed time series of wind and solar generation at high granularity from re-analysis models. 2016.

Electricity market design (IEA-RETD). Assessment of long-term wholesale and retail power market design under very high shares of variable renewables in cooperation with FTI CL Energy. 2015-16. Report

Benefits of hydro flexibility (Utility). Model-based assessment of capture prices for a European utility. Neon provided a model-based assessment of the market value of wind energy and hydroelectricity. 2016.

Price drop (Swedish Energy). Swedish wholesale power prices declined by two thirds from 2010 to 2015. Neon conducted a model-based assessment of the reasons for this price drop. 2016. Report

Wind value in the Nordics (Energiforsk). Model-based assessment of the market value of wind energy in the hydro-dominated power system of the Nordic region. Neon designed the study, developed the model, and wrote the report, which appeared in Applied Energy. 2016. Article

Model development (Trading company). Neon supported the trading department of a major European utility in power market model development. 2015.

Whole system costs (DECC). Neon reviewed a report on whole system costs of wind and solar power for the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change, London. 2015. Report

Renewables integration cost (Agora Energiewende). Qualitative study for Agora Energiewende. Neon advised Agora and helped implement workshops in Berlin and Paris. 2015. Report

System-friendly wind and solar (IEA). Model-based study for the International Energy Agency. Neon assessed the market and system benefits of low-wind speed turbines and west-oriented PV. 2014-16. Paper